Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 1027.586917 1179.026582 1353.137565 1569.962841 1835.334567 2152.956578 2.567113e+03
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 796.217072 980.309410 1213.506483 1537.229525 1986.068234 2604.185423 3.553638e+03
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 696.869821 895.858918 1163.684651 1562.806456 2165.559912 3084.416778 4.687100e+03
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 631.612120 840.948812 1137.148509 1606.004368 2369.514745 3647.738334 6.172128e+03
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 572.572858 783.523811 1094.056341 1610.279728 2505.724910 4132.311921 7.733822e+03
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 516.907929 722.714409 1035.320663 1575.991720 2564.300047 4489.860377 9.216608e+03
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 483.395054 690.549516 1015.323804 1600.412265 2730.643636 5107.266502 1.167259e+04
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 440.732955 639.249131 957.581161 1548.249233 2736.854062 5385.866866 1.342868e+04
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 406.561452 597.981570 911.406392 1509.287424 2760.236615 5711.427747 1.557960e+04
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 376.233577 560.138686 866.805286 1466.304673 2765.432597 5995.365258 1.784660e+04
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 366.934916 556.080233 880.069622 1537.016323 3038.700668 7092.190632 2.443827e+04
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 354.876838 546.101599 881.384114 1583.523028 3267.741485 8177.132069 3.268467e+04
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 340.232867 531.989739 876.545576 1623.367482 3511.415107 9514.497473 4.567712e+04
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 318.216646 503.279592 841.727940 1593.976008 3571.664020 10295.161097 5.765131e+04
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 304.880468 488.814302 832.412549 1619.836545 3793.110908 11844.774212 8.236988e+04
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 294.762665 479.268478 831.586855 1665.346501 4089.716877 13976.677717 1.275289e+05
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 281.577970 462.849347 814.986084 1669.792527 4262.475617 15724.767538 1.856816e+05
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 265.960537 440.627876 784.182424 1633.829012 4293.000166 16800.409469 2.471798e+05
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 256.987847 430.467794 777.701997 1659.445731 4546.928989 19444.016566 4.151674e+05
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 242.221070 408.010613 742.831502 1604.732193 4495.033604 20171.240920 5.411578e+05
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 229.721177 389.243671 714.464551 1563.883703 4485.928750 21230.135295 7.521845e+05
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 217.858076 371.039526 685.913981 1518.838483 4449.668693 22102.940437 1.038035e+06
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 215.474357 371.595681 699.050467 1592.953660 4922.642412 27776.251353 3.293446e+06